Will technology kill book publishers?
July 28, 2010
Amazon announced last week that it has sold more e-books than hardcover books.
At the same time, the Wylie literary agency has announced a number of big publishing deals bypassing the traditional publishing houses, and going straight into online publishing.
So, e-books are now more important than traditional books. More e-books are sold, and more money will soon be made from e-books than traditional books.
So what will happen with the traditional publishers? Will they go the same way as the music industry (a decline of more than 50% in less than 10 years)? Or will it go even faster?
One reason often put forward why this may not necessarily be the case is of course the selection role played by traditional publishers.
We all have that book in us – that’s an awful lot of books, and if we’re honest, we know that a lot of those books should maybe be written, but not necessarily read – or published.
However, those who think that traditional publishing will survive, miss three important points of the technological revolution around e-books.
The first is the low cost of publishing. As with music, the cost will drop to zero. Entry into the market, and the possibility of piracy, will also have a big effect on e-books. Technical protection against piracy? I’ll believe it when I see it.
The second is the role of technology. There is no reason why a clever publisher (or IT person) would not develop a software application that would do most of the selection of publishable material for you. I’m pretty sure it is possible for a clever algorithm to be developed, that will be able to select, between millions of manuscripts submitted, the ten (or hundred) candidates for blockbusters, or literary talent, or both.
The third is the role of crowdsourcing. When everyone will be able to post their writings (as an e-book) online, the power of crowdsourcing will be able to play an important filtering and selection role.
So I’m not convinced that publishing, as such, has much of a future.
